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We are going to have a budget on 6 March. That is early. It is not unprecedentedly so, but it is about as early as it can reasonably be.
Does this mean that there will be a spring election, with this budget offering a pile of promises that the Tories know that they never can or will deliver, but which they will use to trap Labour? I think that likely.
There are many reasons why a May election makes sense for Sunak.
First, his chance of holding his party together for much longer than that seems to be vanishingly small.
Second, nothing he now promises on almost any issue can now be delivered, because he knows that his control of parliament is limited.
And third, sometime in mid-2024 Baroness Hallett is going to report on political decision making during Covid and that is going to be damning for Sunak, Johnson and Gove (probably in that order). He cannot wait and risk that.
So, May it looks likely to be. There will be much stupidity to suffer between now and then.
What that does mean is that I need to finish the Taxing Wealth Report. That was on my agenda for now. Covid is not helping that.
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